The ongoing protest in Hong Kong may affect sales of luxury brands by ten per cent to 60 per cent. One risk that could drive the downside further is if the disruptions continue even beyond 2019.
LVMH sees roughly 30 per cent of its Asian sales, excluding Japan, come from Hong Kong. That translates to about an eight per cent total sales exposure in Hong Kong when viewed across LVMH’s global distribution network. If Hong Kong sales were to decline between 10 to 60 per cent year-over-year, then LVMH’s earnings per share could decrease in the range of one per cent to three per cent.
As for other brands that do business in Hong Kong, Capri Holdings’ sales exposure to Asia is relatively small at four per cent. One big concern, however, is that the company might not have as much flexibility in recouping lost sales in Mainland China. Tapestry’s sales exposure to Greater China–which includes Mainland China, Hong Kong, Macau and Taiwan–is roughly 15 per cent. About 25 per cent of sales in the region comes from Hong Kong. From an overall sales perspective, that equates to just a four per cent exposure to Hong Kong for the leather accessories firm.